CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-07-21T16:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-07-21T16:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32090/-1
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery. STEREO A COR2 is in a data gap during this event. The source of this CME appears to be an M1.0 flare from AR13757 (N15E20) peaking at 2024-07-21T16:31Z. Filament ejecta is visible in SDO/AIA 304 and GOES SUVI 304 with significant northward deflection. The bulk of the CME is likely the brighter portion visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 difference imagery to the NE. The fainter halo portion is possibly associated with this event, though there is some uncertainty due to a lack of visible dimming to the south of the source location.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-23T19:48Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-24T05:14Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1224.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 710.232 Acceleration: -0.172751 Duration in seconds: 217598.29 Duration in days: 2.5184987 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -0.17 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 672.6 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 24/07/2024 Time: 05:14 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 31.28 hour(s)
Difference: -9.43 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2024-07-22T12:31Z
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